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  • Writer's pictureDoug Howarth

A Sufficient Condition

For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled Richard P. Feynman Feynman’s observation about truth is one that can move past physics, where he won the Nobel prize. It happens that in all markets, we collectively form relationships about how we respond to product features and prices. It is our Nature. As we build, say, a helicopter for the President of the United States (A), we might be inclined to keep adding to it: unprecedented speed, a larger cabin, extra defensive systems. After all, we might tell ourselves; there won’t be a more important thing in the sky. It is a necessary condition to protect it and everyone inside. The bonus features drive an increase in Value – and Price. But at a group-induced limit we call the Demand Frontier, sales stop. We do not have any more monies to buy more of the product in question past the points on that line. Trying to exceed the Demand Frontier is a sufficient condition to stop any program. In the case of the VH-71, USG requirements creep let it become untenable. All of that could have been avoided by analyzing the market as in B. Doing a market analysis is hard. Losing $4.2 billion is harder. #innovation #demand #marketanalysis #business
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