Publications
SELECTED ARTICLES
Self-Organizing Markets And Time
Markets demonstrate statistically significant self-organization concerning how they respond to changes in prices and the product features offered to them. The nature of these self-organizing activities changes over time. What works for a market now may not work a few years from now. Being able to characterize market self-organization now and in the future is key to optimizing financial success, which this paper examines.
A 7D Trade
The markets for military aircraft and air-to-ground missiles and bombs relate to each another. Customers respond to the features and prices in each market in unique, but quantifiable ways. Both markets face budget limitations. New methods described here demonstrate how to find and work within these mutually limiting constraints.
Demand, Recurring Costs, And Profitability
Customers in all markets collectively abide by their self-imposed demand curves, which dictate their responsiveness to changes in price and the maximum quantities of products they can absorb. Concurrently, producers in all markets face recurring costs, which typically fall over time due to a variety of factors. Producers can effectively model demand and recurring costs before product launch. Understanding how demand curves relate to recurring costs is key to enhancing profitability, which this paper examines.
Aiming and Missing across Multiple Dimensions
Aircraft manufacturers choose a variety of vehicle features in their new designs. Markets value these features in predictable ways, and adjust expenditures according to their demand curves. New methods described in this paper demonstrate how to aim for the desired attributes and how to plan for missed targets.
Trade Space, Product Optimization and Parametric Analysis
This article shows how to bound, build, and assemble trade spaces for product optimization. The advent of computerized tools that describe available trade spaces has changed not only the nature of optimized product design, but that of parametric cost studies as well. Because these tools allow broader analysis, engineers can produce many more potential designs. Those tools, explained in this article, allow parametricians to analyze trade spaces in a manner that allows them to determine the sets of product attributes that have the best chance for market success. However, rather than trailing such engineering studies, parametricians may be able to lead them. In the process, parametricians may be able to move their organizations toward more economically viable configurations, those that markets will more readily accept.
What DAIV (Demand as an Independent Variable) says About Your Market
This paper shows how the quantity demanded, viewed as an independent variable, interacts with customer values, producer costs and constraints. Failure to analyze Demand as Independent Variable (pronounced “Dave”) increases the chances that new programs will not launch, or once started, will fail.
Optimizing Design Specifications from Aircraft Market Economics
Aircraft designers often agonize over the most useful set of attributes to include in new aircraft models. Determining the value of aircraft features and extrapolating that information to potential sales figures approaches the haphazard. New methods, described in this paper, remove much of the guesswork in this process.
Business Model for Successful Commercialization of Aircraft Designs
In any new aircraft development program there are many important design decisions that determine profitability potential. The key to making new aircraft profitable is to design features that will command more money than the cost to provide them within the market's ability to absorb them. The business model in this paper shows how to predict or find: 1) the costs to provide various aircraft features; 2) the values that aircraft buyers place on these features; 3) the amount of money that buyers have to commit to them, 4) the open spaces in the market in which to place new designs and 5) the predicted profits from new designs.
N-Dimensional Market Maps
This paper proposes that the law of value and demand better characterizes market activity than the law of supply and demand. The law of value and demand states that attributes determine value; value determines price; and that price determines demand. This mandates four-dimensional systems for all markets. The simultaneous analysis of four disparate markets reveals a statistically significant geometric system in 13 dimensions. This forms the framework for an n-dimensional model of the global economy, first revealed in this paper. The conclusion is that this law satisfactorily explains many economic phenomena that the law of supply and demand cannot.
VSTOL Market Analysis
This paper describes the market for air vehicles that offer Very Short Take Off and Landing (VSTOL) capabilities, also known as VSTOL aircraft. A commercial VSTOL aircraft will only succeed if it provides profits to both manufacturers and airlines. Being able to operate out of shorter fields offers airlines greater flexibility and therefore provides a benefit to the airline. However, adding VSTOL performance also adds cost. Successful VSTOL aircraft designs must balance the added cost against the additional benefits VSTOL performance will provide.
Profit as an Independent Variable: The Case of Business Aircraft
Aeronautical engineers often try to optimize commercial aircraft to factors such as maximum cruise speed or minimum drag. But, when we step back and analyze the problem more deeply, we understand that if we are in business to make money, we ought to solve for profitability instead. In this paper, we examine how to solve for maximum profit, give how the costs we face, and how the market reacts to the features offered to it as it considers its demand limitations.
Financial Catscans and Time
This paper describes an optimized method for suppliers to build products based upon market economics. It demonstrates that markets (as that for business aircraft studied herein) exhibit value estimating relationships (VERs) which intersect aggregate demand curves. In any viable market, the outputs of VERs, cost estimating relationships (CERs) and aggregate demand curves, along with relevant technical, physical and legal constraints form financial opportunity spaces (FOSs). Financial opportunity spaces are three-dimensional regions which result from section cuts of cost and value spaces intersecting limiting price boundaries from their orthogonal aggregate demand curves, a fourth dimension, and time, a fifth dimension. Once financial opportunity spaces are determined, section cuts through them provide two-dimensional financial catscans. Profit potential per unit, as a one-dimensional vertical vector measured in currency, represents the height of financial catscans. Financial catscans direct financially optimized entry points into marketplaces, as well as price, value and cost attributes.